Joint location of microseismic events in the presence of velocity uncertainty

The locations of seismic events are used to infer reservoir properties and to guide future production activity, as well as to determine and understand the stress field. Thus, locating seismic events with uncertainty quantification remains an important problem. Using Bayesian analysis, a joint probability density function of all event locations was constructed from prior information about picking errors in kinematic data and explicitly quantified velocity model uncertainty. Simultaneous location of all seismic events captured the absolute event locations and the relative locations of some events with respect to others, along with their associated uncertainties. We found that the influence of an uncertain velocity model on location uncertainty under many realistic scenarios can be significantly reduced by jointly locating events. Many quantities of interest that are estimated from multiple event locations, such as fault sizes and fracture spacing or orientation, can be better estimated in practice using the proposed approach.